For a team that won only three games last season, the Detroit Lions were one of the best stories of 2021 — doubly so if you rode the Lions to an 11-6 ATS finish.
Detroit had the luxury of playing with house money, as expectations were very low for Dan Campbell’s rah-rah style of coaching and a franchise in the post-Stafford era. That also meant plenty of forgiveness from the oddsmakers week to week. Detroit was a dog of +7 or higher in 11 of its 17 games.
Now, the Lions’ NFL odds are calling for a stark improvement with a win total of 6.5. Detroit may have caught some foes with their guard down in 2021 but no one is taking the Lions lightly this year, including the betting public.
Reward or regression? That’s the question we seek to answer in our 2022 Detroit Lions betting preview.
Detroit Lions futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +15,000 |
| To win conference | +6,000 |
| To win division | +1,000 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 6.5 (Over -115) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +135 / No -450 |
Best futures bet: Under 6.5 wins (EVEN)
A lean to the Under 6.5 wins is not a shot at the Lions by any means. In fact, six wins are absolutely in their grasp, considering the state of the NFC North and the quality of quarterbacks on the upcoming slate. Goff is on par or at least competitive with his QB counterparts in eight games.
However, four of those comparable QB matchups come on the road, and winning away from home is a cultural deficiency in Detroit. Last year, the Lions were 0-8-1 SU away from home, and even with Matt Stafford under center, this franchise had a hard time in enemy territory (34-70-2 SU on the road since 2009).
The Lions have a home-friendly frontloaded schedule but close the campaign with three of their final four on the highway. Win No. 7 may come down to a Week 18 finale at Green Bay (+7.5) and whatever the Packers are planning before the playoffs.
Detroit Lions betting overview
What will win bets: The trenches
In true Dan Campbell “kneecap biting” proximity, the Lions will win the close-up war on the line of scrimmage most games. Detroit has sturdy pillars on the offensive line finally healthy all at once (or at least for the start of training camp), giving the Lions’ rushing attack a huge push up front and providing sound pass protection. Too bad it’s wasted on Jared Goff.
On the other side of the ball, Detroit drafted elite prospects on the defensive line with No. 2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson and second-rounder Josh Paschal. The hope is giving the pass rush some fangs after Detroit posted a pressure rate of just 20.5% (29th) but at the very least, teams will have a hell of a time running against the Lions.
What will lose bets: Lousy linebackers/soft secondary
If the defensive line can’t make opposing passers uncomfortable, the Lions are in for a long season. Again. Detroit finished 31st in yards allowed per completion, dead last in opponents’ average depth of target, and 27th in pass defense DVOA at Football Outsiders.
Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will likely be more aggressive with his blitzes in order to protect the guys behind the line. But, should rival offenses keep the pass rush at bay or break through the D-line, they’ll shred a shallow pool of LBs and expose a coverage-challenged group of CBs. That will lead to quick scores and force the Lions to abandon the run, disarming their greatest offensive strength.
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Detroit Lions game-by-game odds
According to the lookahead lines, Detroit is projected to at least equal last year’s win total of three as it’s slim chalk in Week 4, Week 13, and Week 17.
The Lions were underdogs in every game in 2021 and made the most hay at home, posting a 6-2 ATS count inside Ford Field, where they faced an average spread of +6.25 and finished with an average margin of -5.8 points.
This season, Detroit sees an average home spread of about +2.5 but faces a much lighter schedule than 2021 (T6), ranked out 28th in SOS and 25th in my QB SOS. Outside of dates with Green Bay and Buffalo, the Lions have a legit shot in seven of their nine home stands. Motown moneylines, anyone?
Road games have long been the thorn in the Lions’ paw but the schedule makers have taken pity on Detroit in 2022, as the team stays in the Eastern and Central time zones for all eight away games and ventures no further West than Dallas in Week 7.
Fun Fact: Outside of a 12:30 p.m. ET kickoff at home on Thanksgiving and a TBD time slot for Week 18, the Lions play every other game at 1 p.m. ET. Big ups to those believing in body clocks.
| 1 | vs. Philadelphia | +4 | 46.5 |
| 2 | vs. Washington | +1.5 | 44.5 |
| 3 | @ Minnesota | +7 | 47.5 |
| 4 | vs. Seattle | -2 | 45 |
| 5 | @ New England | +7 | 45 |
| 6 | BYE | ||
| 7 | @ Dallas | +7.5 | 49 |
| 8 | vs. Miami | +3.5 | 46.5 |
| 9 | vs. Green Bay | +6.5 | 48.5 |
| 10 | @ Chicago | +2.5 | 43.5 |
| 11 | @ New York Giants | +2.5 | 44 |
| 12 | vs. Buffalo | +9.5 | 49.5 |
| 13 | vs. Jacksonville | -2.5 | 47.5 |
| 14 | vs. Minnesota | +3 | 47.5 |
| 15 | @ New York Jets | +3 | 45 |
| 16 | @ Carolina | +3 | 43.5 |
| 17 | vs. Chicago | -1.5 | 44 |
| 18 | @ Green Bay | +7.5 | 45 |
Detroit Lions pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
Detroit is everyone’s favorite sleeper this year, but I’m not seeing it. This is still a Bottom-5 defensive roster, and Jared Goff has proven to be a bottom tier starting quarterback.
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