The Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys are both looking for bounce-back wins in Big D after shocking upset losses.
Our Ravens vs. Cowboys predictions expect Dallas to come up short at home for a second straight week, and these NFL picks for Sunday, September 22 outline why.
Additionally, Rob Paul offers his three best Ravens vs Cowboys props to fill out your Week 3 betslip.
Ravens vs Cowboys prediction
My best betRavens -1 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Baltimore Ravens were a toenail away from possibly upsetting the Chiefs on opening night and now they find themselves in danger of falling to 0-3. Only one team had made the playoffs after an 0-3 start since 2000 and that was the 2018 Texans. John Harbaugh and company will do anything to avoid that fate.
The first step to avoiding that fate is attacking the Dallas Cowboys defense with the run game. The Cowboys rank 21st in the league in rushing defense and allowed Alvin Kamara and the Saints to rush for 190 yards and four touchdowns last week. The Ravens will bring the No. 6-ranked rushing offense with several options to deploy.
The Cowboys rank last in the league in run stuff percentage (6.9%), which is the percentage of opponent run plays resulting no gain or loss. That is a huge problem against Derrick Henry, who feasts on defenses once he gets a head of steam.
The problem for the Ravens will be in their passing defense. They have allowed more yards through the air this season than any defense and that is troubling considering they just played the Raiders. Dallas features one of the league’s better passing offenses, which is of slight concern.
However, it will be difficult for Dallas to get that passing game going if they do not have the ball. That is why Baltimore will focus on keeping possession and getting that run game going with Henry. If Dallas decides to stack the box and attack the run, Lamar Jackson can run it outside on the read option. The Ravens will get their first win of the season here on the road.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Ravens vs Cowboys same-game parlay
Ravens -1Derrick Henry Over 66.5 rush yardsLamar Jackson anytime touchdown
+400 at BetMGM
The Ravens win through the ground game, which will go through Henry. He had 84 yards last week on the ground despite the loss. The Cowboys just allowed Kamara to run for 115 yards and will struggle to stop Henry in the secondary once he breaks through the front seven.
Finally, we will throw in Jackson to find the end zone with his legs. The Cowboys allowed Derek Carr to score last week on the ground, and Jackson can take advantage of Henry’s big performance with a read option catching the Cowboys cheating on Henry, leading to an easy touchdown for for the QB.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Ravens vs Cowboys odds
Ravens vs Cowboys live odds
Ravens vs Cowboys opening odds
- Spread: Baltimore +1 (-110) | Dallas -1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Baltimore +100 | Dallas -120
- Over/Under: Over 48 (-110) | Under 48 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Ravens vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened with the Cowboys as 1-point favorites but has completely flipped to Ravens -1 as of Saturday morning.
- The Cowboys have lost six of the last nine games in which their opponent rushed for more yards than them.
- The total went as high as 49.5 before falling to 47.5 as of Saturday morning.
- All four games played by these two teams this season have gone Over the total.
