The Dallas Cowboys backed into a home playoff game by snatching the NFC East title from the fading Eagles in the final three weeks of the season — a huge lift for a team that plays its best football in front of the Dallas faithful.
AT&T Stadium welcomes the Green Bay Packers and a long history between these storied franchises for Sunday’s NFC Wild Card Weekend game, with the NFL odds dealing Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite for this 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
I size up the spread and Over/Under total for this Wild Card contest and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Packers vs. Cowboys on Sunday, January 14.
For more angles on this intriguing game, be sure to check out our Packers vs Cowboys props and our Dak Prescott odds and props spotlight!
Packers vs Cowboys odds
Packers vs Cowboys predictions
With an Over/Under this tall and all eyes on the quarterbacks for this Wild Card clash, it’s easy to overlook the ground game — specifically from the Dallas Cowboys.
Stopping Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb will be the focus of the Green Bay Packers’ defensive plans, but running back Tony Pollard will be a massive thorn in the Cheeseheads’ side and, given Sunday’s sizable spread, the final nail in Green Bay’s coffin.
Pollard has had an up-and-down season in his first year as Dallas’ RB1, starting slow but picking up steam around Thanksgiving. His production dipped again toward the end of December, but he closed the slate with a 70-yard, 17-carry day versus Washington in Week 18.
It was Pollard’s fourth-highest rushing output on the season (and put him over 1,000 yards) in a game in which he was lightly used in the fourth quarter with the Cowboys protecting their starters. It also served as a positive for both him and the offensive line heading into the tournament.
“In this league, it’s something you have to do in the playoffs,” Pollard told reporters about the importance of running the ball. “When it’s December football and it’s cold, and in January, you’ve gotta be able to pound the ball and be able to throw the ball (as well). Being able to show it was big.”
Pollard and the O-line can keep that momentum moving on the turf versus the Packers. Green Bay finished the campaign ranked 22nd in EPA allowed per handoff and allowed 4.4 yards per carry (23rd) to rival rushers, giving up the 11th most rushing yards to RBs.
Green Bay’s defense hasn’t been challenged much in the home stretch of the season. It’s faced plenty of pop-gun passing attacks, which has allowed the Packers to focus on canning the run and forcing foes to lean into their shaky QBs.
However, in games against quality air attacks, like Kansas City and Detroit, rival running backs have enjoyed plenty of space with the Packers protecting against the pass. The Chiefs finished with 148 yards rushing on 25 carries and the Lions rumbled for 140 on 31 attempts.
In fact, the last time Green Bay met Dallas, Pollard blistered the Packers’ run stop. He went for 115 yards on 22 carries and a touchdown in an overtime loss at Lambeau Field in November 2022 — a loss that sticks with Cowboys head coach and former Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy.
Pollard’s rushing yard prop for Sunday sits at 59.5 yards O/U at FanDuel. Other operators are higher on that total, including some notable sharp books jumping from 60.5 to 61.5 yards with the Over juiced to -133.
This prop total seems short considering the trajectory of Dallas’ ground attack, the Packers’ poor rushing defense, but also the game script for this Wild Card contest. With the Cowboys set as 7.5-point chalk, there’s a good chance they’re playing with the lead in the second half and leaning on Pollard and the run to grind out gains and kill clock down the stretch Sunday.
Player projections for the Wild Card Weekend are calling for a big effort from Pollard, with most models flirting with 70 yards. My forecast sits just shy of 65 rushing yards with the ceiling from some projections as high as 74 yards on Sunday.
My best bet: Tony Pollard Over 59.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Packers vs Cowboys same-game parlay
Tony Pollard Over 59.5 rushing yardsDak Prescott Over 1.5 passing touchdownsCeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown
+286 at FanDuel
Pollard picks up where he left off last week and rushes for 60-plus against a suspect Packers defense.
Prescott plays his best football in Jerry’s World and connects for two or more touchdowns on Sunday.
CeeDee has been a beast for the Cowboys passing game. He’s scored nine TDs in his last nine games and projections call for another score in the Wild Card Round.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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